Russell 4-27-07

The market gapped lower approximately 4 points and continued to push down toward's yesterday's low early in the morning. Bulls attempted to bring price above the open for the morning but couldn't sustain any enthusiasum.

First trade of the morning long at 6:59 at 834.00 for +0.1. Second trade of the morning was short at 7:19 at 834.3 for +3.0.

Net on the morning: +3.1
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Russell 4-26-07

The market opened to further weakness this morning continuing yesterday's afternoon's bearish activity. After mid-morning the market reversed and moved up to this morning's opening price.

First trade of the morning long at 6:42 at 834.8 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning was short at 6:49 at 833.5 for +1.2. Third trade of the morning was long at 7:10 at 832.00 for +2.5.

Net for the morning: +1.9
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Russell 4-25-07

After a strong gap open this morning, the bears rushed in to fill the gap and we proceeded to seek yesterday afternoon's lows. It will be interesting to see if we repeat yesterday afternoon's bullish activities.

First and only trade of the morning short at 6:42 at 833.50 for +2.8.

Net for the morning: +2.8
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Russell 4-24-07

After a brief early morning attempt to push price above 834.00, the bears came out of the woods and brought the Russell down to yesterday's lows. When housing price data was released with record numbers, the floor dropped out of support and the Russell took a dive with the rest of the U.S. indicies.

First and only trade of the morning short at 6:37 at 831.50 for +3.4 points

Net on the morning: +3.4
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Russell 4-23-07

The Russell opened agressively lower this morning off of Friday's high, but just couldn't drive much below Friday's value area. The bulls came out and attempted to push the day above Friday but ran out of steam. After that the market settled into a very narrow range and I except well probably see some continued bullish activity this afternoon.

First trade of the morning was short at 6:32 at 831.50 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning was long at 6:42 at 833.40 for +0.1. Third trade of the morning was short at 7:01 at 833.70 for +0.4.

Net on the morning: -1.3
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Russell 4-19-07

The Russell gapped down 8 points and pushed lower several points before attempting to fill the gap. This was a pretty tight ranging morning making momentum trading very difficult.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:48 at 822.2 for -1.3. Second trade of the morning was short at 6:59 at 821.8 for -1.5. Third trade of the morning was short at 7:14 at 821.2 for -1.8.

Net for the morning: -4.5
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Russell 4-18-07

The Russell gapped down modestly this morning but bears just couldn't get the gap filled. The market ranged back and forth below the open for the first half hour and only after that attempted to push higher.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:57 at 831.2 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning was long at 7:17 at 829.8 for +0.8. Third trade of the morning was short at 7:37 at 831.2 for -1.3.

Net for the morning: -2.3
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Russell 4-17-07

Although the market opened above yesterday's close and attempted to rally immediately above yesterday's high, the bears were quick to come in and drive prices down to yesterday's low. The market rebounded from there and look to be seeking to break above the day's high later this morning and this afternoon.

First trade of the morning was a long at 7:01 at 834.50 for +2.0. Second trade of the morning was a short at 7:29 at 835.20 for -0.4.

Net for the morning: +1.6
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Russell 4-16-07

The Russell opened 5 points higher than Friday's close and showed modest bullish activity this morning for the first half-hour. The bears tried to close the gap around 7:00 but just couldn't get back to the day's open. The market continued to move up from that point on.

First trade of the morning was a short at 6:56 at 831.80 for -0.4.

Net for the morning: -0.4
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Russell 4-13-07

The Russell pushed higher this morning attempting to establish new highs from yesterday. However, after a brief rally, the market quickly reversed and sought yesterday's low before retracing. This was a textbook perfect momentum trading morning.

First trade of the morning was a short at 6:42 a.m. at 819.20 for +2.1. Second trade of the morning was a long at 7:21 at 816.80 for +1.9.

Net for the morning: +4.0
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What are the odds of becoming a Successful Trader?

Inspired by Steve Pavalina's post "What are the odds of becoming a successful black belt?", I feel compelled to shed some light on this trading myth. The myth of course is that 90% (or 85%, or 95% or whatever) of all traders washout. There are two inherent fallacies with this statistic - one is the quantitative fallacy (is there even a way to quantitatively measure this and if so has anyone actually ever conducted such a study), and two is the qualitative fallacy - do your efforts mean nothing if statistically you only have a 5% chance of success?

Remember, statistics center around averages, the solution - don't be average. "Never tell me the odds, kid."

The problem with these statistics (or any statistics for that matter) is that they look for averages. Quite frankly I see a lot of average people everyday. Most of them can barely drive, spend more than they save, believe that "American Idol" is worth watching, and eat fast food six times a week. So am I concerned about the competition - not exactly. As Steve so eloquently states in his article, the typical person is just a dabbler. They pull up some free information on the internet, think that they can trade with a $1k account, churn their account like butter while making all sorts of emotional stupid decisions and then give up in frustration. Is it any wonder that most of these people fail?

The real question that most people would like to know is what are the odds of an above average, driven, well motivated, positive thinking, well capitalized, well educated and totally driven person succeeding after spending 3-5 years of hard work, in other words a qualified trader? Unfortunately there are so many variables to the above statements that we may never have an answer. However, based on my experience observing and interacting with these types of people (and working towards being one myself) I would say the odds are quite good. Of the 10 or so people I know who meet these qualifications 80% of them are making enough money to sustain a modest lifestyle or better ($100K annually or better) from their trading income. Four of them are making at least medium 6 figure numbers and at least one of them is making 7 figures. Now of course these statistics are also fairly meaningless, but at least they seem a little more realistic. To me the odds of a qualified trader seem pretty good - basically an 80% chance of modest success, and a 40% chance of making a significant income (top 5% income earner or better).

Although some of you might draw some comfort from the above statistics, personally they are somewhat meaningless. Basically, your success or failure stands with your commitment to mastery. Or as my beginning statistics instructor said, "statistics are a lie".
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Russell 4-12-07

The market opened off a couple points from yesterday's strong close and then pushed lower the first half-hour of the morning seeking yesterday's low. From there the market had a typical 7:00 a.m. reversal and sought the morning's open eventually reaching yesterday's high.

First trade of the morning was at 6:33 short at 812.20 for +3.6. Exit was based on yesterday's low which was at 808.60. Once it was clear that we weren't going to push any lower I exited my position. Second trade of the morning was at 809.80 for +0.1. This trade started to turn off as RSX was rising and I felt it was better to exit the trade then wait for things to turn further. Obviously this was a bit premature.

Net for the morning: +3.7
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Why Trade?

It's a simple question really, but I think it bears some pontification. Why do we trade, what do we hope to accomplish and how do we hope to benefit? Many of you might be silently thinking (or even thinking out loud); we trade to make money (duh). This is certainly one answer, and a valid one at that. However, I think that there are plenty of other ways to make money as well. So why does a person choose this method of making money? Or is that the only reason we trade?

For my own personal journey into the world of trading, I started off wanting to find a business model that was successful and either start or purchase my own business. The primary motivation at the time was to pursue a career that couldn’t be taken away from me by downsizing, rightsizing or any other crazy corporate nonsense. Although I hadn’t personally been through this, I had watched several friends and family struggle to rebuild their career after the rug had been pulled out from under them. Additionally, I feel that the least intelligent people tend to rise to upper management and that I didn’t want to be ruled by idiots. Lastly, I wanted the personal freedom to set my own work hours and vacations. One of the most criminal things is seeing low-paid employees having to beg to get more than 3 days of vacation at a time.

The goal of finding a financially and emotionally rewarding business led me through a series of different interests until I finally discovered the Forex market through a friend of mine. The markets interested me with several key business benefits not found in most other businesses: 1) interesting work, 2) flexible hours, 3) work anywhere, 4) no employees (gotta love that), 5) no customers (even better), and 6) low initial capital investment. Although some of the other factors were important, for example flexible hours, the best and most compelling aspect was that I found this work to be interesting and not tedious. And if you think about it – that is the ideal business.

Two years later and many markets, timeframes, indicators and strategies later, I still feel the same way about #1. I haven't yet quit my day job - but I feel that day is coming soon. I enjoy getting up each morning and trading the markets – it’s the best thing I will do all day (whether I’m profitable or not that morning). As long as that remains true, I will continue to trade. How about you, what is your reason to trade?

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Russell 4-11-07

What an interesting morning we've had on the Russell. The market opened near yesterday's close and proceeded to head lower all morning. Interestingly enough, there was no significant news this morning (Bernake's speach and FOMC minutes are expected at 10:00 and 11:00 respectively).

No valid trades this morning.

Why I spend my off-market hours at Kreslik.com

I first started visiting Kreslik.com when Avery Horton a.k.a. The Rumpled One began posting there. I had enjoyed many of his articles from the TradeStation forum and so it was a natural progression. Michal Kreslik, the founder of the site has created a wonderful community where traders of various different stripes can get together and have meaningful conversations without fear of unnecessary censure or politics.

Some of you might be asking, well that's great but there are certainly other notable forums out there where traders can interact. Certainly true, however, the caliber of people seems to be very high at Kreslik.com because intelligent conversation is encouraged and because people know that the community is there for them to learn from and to contribute to. I would say that it is the contributions of trading knowledge from Michael, Avery and others that makes the site a pleasure to read and creates a real sense of community. Both systematic traders such as Michal and discretionary traders such as Avery contribute and both groups are welcome to share their knowledge. I've found the people there to be generous with their time and knowledge and there is very much a no-nonsense approach there - you won't find snakeoil salesmen trying to hawk their wares.

Thank you Michael, Avery and everyone else who makes this site so great!
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Russell 4-10-07

The market opened up with a slight gap down that was quickly filled as the market continued with modest bullish activity. I thought we might see a reversal after 7:00 but the bears just couldn't get any traction this morning.

First and only trade of the day was short at 7:12 at 819.00 for -1.8.

Net on the morning: -1.8
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Russell 4-9-07

Classic gap fill morning this morning with modest activity seeking out Thursday's lows coming back after Easter.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:38 at 818.40 for -1.1. Second trade of the morning was short at 6:47 at 818.70 for +2.0.

Net on the morning: +0.9
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Russell 4-5-07 and 4-6-07

There was so little activity yesterday morning that no trades were triggered. Today (Friday) is Good Friday so the stock market is closed. Happy Easter everyone.

Type rest of the post here

Russell 4-4-07

The Russell opened up to weakness this morning and then after seeking yesterday morning's opening price moved into a ranging mode for most of the day.

First and only trade of the morning was long at 7:19 at 815.00 for +0.0

Net for the morning: +0.0
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Russell 4-3-07

For the next couple of days my daily trades will be put up the next day since I've got guests over.

The market gapped up and held strong for the early portion of the morning. This was a pretty straight forward trending day and there were only signs of strength in the market until it fell into a fairly tight range after lunch.

First trade of the morning was at 7:19 a.m. short at 816.20 for -1.3. Second trade of the morning was long at 7:32 at 815.70 for +1.1.

Net for the morning was -0.2
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Russell 4-2-07

Well this was a good start to the month with some healthy mid-morning activity the market sought to extend the range into yesterday afternoon's value area.

First trade of the morning was at 6:56 a.m. short at 808.00 for +2.5. Second trade of the morning was at 7:37 a.m. long at 807.7 for -1.3.

Net for the morning: +1.2
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