Wednesday, March 19, 2008

USDJPY Hidden Divergence 3/19/08 - Not Every Trade is Brilliant

Not every trade is a winner. This is a fact of trading. Most guys selling you software won't mention that reality. Fortunately I'm not selling anything (expect a viewpoint perhaps). What I find amazing is that most of the best traders I know average about a 40% win ratio - yep you hear that right they lose more than they win. And speaking of losses...

Our USDJPY 5 min bar trade setup this morning combined hidden divergence of our oscillator with price, a touch of the 61.8% retracement area and a confirmed bullish harami candle that wasn't too big.

Entry 99.28
Stop 99.06
R = 22 pips
Initial target 99.85 (61% retracement)
R to R ratio: 2.86

Actual exit was at 99.06 for -22 pips or -1R

Remember 1 loss isn't that big a deal (it means absolutely nothing statistically). Heck you can expect 6 or 7 loss strings sometimes - that's trading. But when your targets are at least 2:1 the odds are actually on your side even if you only win less than 50% of the time.

Type rest of the post here

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