Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Russell 2-28-07

This morning premarket had some modest bullish sentiment that quickly faded after the first few minutes of the trading day. Bears came back out to seek yesterday's tremendous low but failed to hold any enthusiasum. As Dr. Steenbarger showed last night with his research large down days like this tend to generate bullish sentiment during a bull market and this seemed to hold true today as the most interesting moves were to the upside.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:32 at 792.00 for -1.8. This was a late entry on my part (by about a point) as the market started moving right from the bell quite quickly. Second trade of the morning was short at 6:38 at 791.3 for +4.6 points which was a nice little move down to test yesterday's low. I missed the third trade of the morning at 6:55 long at 787.7 for +0.7. Fourth trade was short at 7:05 at 789.7 for +1.9 which was a strong entry (I waited for the 55T RSX to indicate OB). Last trade of the morning which I also missed was at 7:15 at 788.00 long for +7.5.

Net on the morning: +4.7

With a couple of missed trades this morning I'm considering perhaps putting half of my position on at the initial entry candle and another half at a more advantageous price (if it occurs) when RSX on the 55T becomes OB/OS. I'll have to test this more, but certainly this morning it would have meant at least getting half my position on during some larger moves.

One of the recurring themes I see each week is that there are one or two pivotal days that make your week and on those days you need to be there for every market opportunity. The time to back off is not when you are doing well but when you are having a tough day or the market can't make up its mind. I think many beginning and even intermediate traders tend to want to do exactly the opposite. On good days we are anxious to keep our profits (and hence reduce our trading) and on bad days we trade just trying to make something happen. I will be keeping this in the foremost of my thoughts as we go forward.
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