One of the things that every trader should do is analyze their trading periodically. For me analysis once per month seems to be beneficial and provides enough data to be relevant.
Many traders feel it isn't worth the hassle to go to the extreme of collecting this level of detailed information. Because every successful trader I know collects and utilizes much of the same of information, I encourage you to do put together something similar for your own trading whether your system is fully mechanical, partially mechanical or totally discretionary.
Please note that this analysis is provided for the Russell momentum scalping method that I discuss extensively on this blog and does not include my Forex swing trades.
Also note that all results are displayed in ticks (not points) unless otherwise noted. All totals include slippage but not commissions.
The "System" is the methodology described under The Key To Trading verbatim.
The "System open PT (or Profit Target)" means that I exited based on when RSX began to roll over (although the market must move 15 ticks in my direction first - otherwise it will just go to the stop). So if I was long and RSX was originally oversold (assuming a regular trade) then I would wait until RSX began to roll back towards being oversold.
Lastly, my trades are simply that - the trades (both good and bad) that I took this month. Also please note that I missed 4 trading days this month.
| | Totals | 1 con/mo | Win Ratio |
| System | 146 | $1,460 | 59% |
| System open PT | 355 | $3,550 | 59% |
| My Trades | 216 | $2,160 | 65% |
| Gross Win | Gross Loss | Profit Ratio |
| 722 | -445 | 1.62 |
| 1161 | -469 | 2.48 |
| 561 | -275 | 2.04 |
So as you can see in summary, the "System" made 145 ticks or 14.5 points the entire month which translates into approximately $1,460 per contract. The "System open PT" made 355 ticks or 35.5 points the entire month, and "My trades" made 216 ticks or 21.6 points.
| | Best day | Worst day | Avg per day | Avg $ 1 con/day |
| System | 45 | -21 | 7 | $73 |
| System open PT | 71 | -16 | 18 | $178 |
| My Trades | 45 | -21 | 11 | $108 |
The above table summarizes best and worst days, average days and average dollars per day for 1 contract.
| | Best week | Worst week | Avg per week | Avg $ 1 con/week |
| System | 36 | 12 | 37 | $365 |
| System open PT | 104 | 10 | 89 | $888 |
| My Trades | 102 | 20 | 54 | $540 |
The above table summarizes best week, and worst week, average ticks per week and average dollars per week per contract. I find it interesting that although I underperformed the "System open PT" in terms of overall per week points, my worst week was half as bad.
| 1/3/2007 | Direction | Type | System | Syst. Open PT | My Trades | Trade Comments |
| 6:30 | Long | Regular | 15 | 24 | | I didn't trade this day |
| 6:41 | Long | BreakOut | -11 | -11 | | |
| 6:50 | Short | Regular | 15 | 12 | | |
| 7:02 | Long | Regular | 15 | 23 | | |
| 7:39 | Short | Regular | 15 | 17 | | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/4/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:31 | Short | Regular | 15 | 47 | | I didn't trade this day |
| 6:47 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | | |
| 7:04 | Short | BreakOut | -2 | -2 | | |
| 7:14 | Long | Regular | 15 | 21 | | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/5/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:42 | Short | BreakOut | -15 | -15 | | I didn't trade this day |
| 6:53 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | | |
| 7:04 | Long | Regular | 15 | -18 | | |
| 8:05 | Short | BreakOut | 15 | 35 | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | Weekly | 56 | 97 | 0 | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/8/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:42 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | 15 | I entered trade 1 candle late |
| 7:04 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | -15 | |
| 7:13 | Short | BreakOut | 15 | 13 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 7:25 | Long | Regular | 15 | 34 | 15 | |
| 7:58 | Short | Regular | -18 | -18 | | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/9/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:33 | Long | Regular | -7 | -7 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 6:37 | Short | BreakOut | -17 | -17 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 6:40 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 6:47 | Short | BreakOut | 15 | 18 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 7:06 | Long | Regular | 15 | 12 | 15 | |
| 7:51 | Short | Regular | 15 | 31 | 15 | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/10/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:45 | Long | Regular | 15 | 23 | 15 | |
| 7:28 | Short | Regular | -18 | -18 | 2 | Exited early |
| 7:39 | Long | Regular | 15 | 14 | 15 | |
| 8:01 | Short | Regular | 15 | 12 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/11/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:31 | Long | BreakOut | 15 | 46 | 20 | |
| 7:04 | Short | Regular | -18 | -18 | -17 | |
| 7:09 | Long | BreakOut | 15 | 1 | 15 | |
| 7:23 | Short | Regular | -3 | -3 | 10 | I exited trade early |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/12/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:39 | Short | Regular | -18 | -18 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 7:08 | Short | Regular | 15 | 23 | 15 | |
| 7:59 | Long | Regular | 15 | 30 | -18 | This was a different trade |
| | | | | | | and was an invalid setup |
| | | Weekly | 27 | 104 | 102 | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/16/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:52 | Short | Regular | 15 | 25 | 15 | |
| 7:24 | Long | Regular | -11 | -11 | -18 | I got out early |
| 7:42 | Short | Regular | -5 | -5 | -1 | |
| 8:03 | Long | Regular | -11 | -11 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/17/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:43 | Long | Regular | 15 | -6 | 15 | |
| 7:02 | Short | Regular | 15 | 3 | 15 | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/18/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:57 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | -18 | |
| 7:01 | Short | Regular | 15 | 27 | 15 | |
| 7:21 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | -18 | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/19/2007 | | | | | | |
| 7:00 | Long | Regular | 15 | 24 | 15 | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | Weekly | 12 | 10 | 20 | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/22/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:31 | Short | BreakOut | 15 | 21 | 30 | |
| 7:03 | Short | BreakOut | 15 | 17 | 15 | |
| 7:01 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 7:22 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/23/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:48 | Long | Regular | 15 | 24 | 15 | |
| 7:13 | Short | Regular | -18 | -18 | -15 | |
| 7:44 | Long | BreakOut | 15 | 33 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/24/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:56 | Short | Regular | -5 | -5 | 15 | I entered early |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/25/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:39 | Short | Regular | 15 | 18 | 15 | |
| 7:13 | Short | BreakOut | 15 | 14 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 7:33 | Long | Regular | 15 | 15 | -15 | I exited early |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/26/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:41 | Short | Regular | 15 | 28 | 0 | I took this trading day off |
| 7:00 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | 0 | |
| 7:04 | Short | BreakOut | -18 | -18 | 0 | |
| 7:09 | Long | Regular | 15 | 20 | 0 | |
| 7:59 | Short | Regular | -4 | -4 | 0 | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | Weekly | 36 | 91 | 60 | |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/29/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:33 | Long | Regular | 15 | 39 | 32 | |
| 7:19 | Short | Regular | -18 | -18 | -17 | |
| 8:06 | Short | Regular | -12 | -12 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/30/2007 | | | | | | |
| 6:38 | Short | Regular | 15 | 3 | 15 | |
| 7:04 | Long | Regular | -18 | -18 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 7:45 | Short | Regular | -18 | -18 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| 8:12 | Long | BreakOut | 6 | 6 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| 1/31/2007 | | | | | | I actually ended up taking |
| 6:32 | Short | BreakOut | 15 | 16 | -8 | a fake BreakOut at 7:45 |
| 7:02 | Long | Regular | 15 | 45 | 15 | |
| 7:56 | Short | Regular | 15 | 10 | 0 | I skipped trade |
| | | | | | | |
| | | Weekly | 15 | 53 | 37 | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | Monthly | 146 | 355 | 219 | |
Analysis:
Based on this information it looks like I am outperforming the basic "System", but I am making about 60% as much as the "System that utilizes an open profit target" (219 ticks vs. 355). Additionally, although my discretion often keeps me out of strings of losers (thus my worst week is about half as bad as the other two systems), I am not maximizing the winners I do have in many cases, and I miss out on some 2 and 3 R trades (which are very important to me psychologically). Lastly, it appears that although I did very well in week 2 by catching trending moves and avoiding counter trend moves (this was a strong trend week), I am significantly under performing the "System with an open PT" in the more choppy (but still volatile) weeks 3 and 4.
Conclusion:
Based on this analysis, I would be better served to trade my methodology utilizing the principles of the "System with an open Profit Target" unless I can positively identify that we are indeed in a trending market and that filtering out entries will have a positive effect on my trading results.
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