Monthly Trade Analysis - January 2007

One of the things that every trader should do is analyze their trading periodically. For me analysis once per month seems to be beneficial and provides enough data to be relevant.

Many traders feel it isn't worth the hassle to go to the extreme of collecting this level of detailed information. Because every successful trader I know collects and utilizes much of the same of information, I encourage you to do put together something similar for your own trading whether your system is fully mechanical, partially mechanical or totally discretionary.


Please note that this analysis is provided for the Russell momentum scalping method that I discuss extensively on this blog and does not include my Forex swing trades.

Also note that all results are displayed in ticks (not points) unless otherwise noted. All totals include slippage but not commissions.

The "System" is the methodology described under The Key To Trading verbatim.

The "System open PT (or Profit Target)" means that I exited based on when RSX began to roll over (although the market must move 15 ticks in my direction first - otherwise it will just go to the stop). So if I was long and RSX was originally oversold (assuming a regular trade) then I would wait until RSX began to roll back towards being oversold.

Lastly, my trades are simply that - the trades (both good and bad) that I took this month. Also please note that I missed 4 trading days this month.

	Totals	1 con/mo	Win Ratio
System	146	$1,460	59%
System open PT	355	$3,550	59%
My Trades	216	$2,160	65%

Gross Win	Gross Loss	Profit Ratio
722	-445	1.62
1161	-469	2.48
561	-275	2.04

So as you can see in summary, the "System" made 145 ticks or 14.5 points the entire month which translates into approximately $1,460 per contract. The "System open PT" made 355 ticks or 35.5 points the entire month, and "My trades" made 216 ticks or 21.6 points.

	Best day	Worst day	Avg per day	Avg $ 1 con/day
System	45	-21	7	$73
System open PT	71	-16	18	$178
My Trades	45	-21	11	$108

The above table summarizes best and worst days, average days and average dollars per day for 1 contract.

	Best week	Worst week	Avg per week	Avg $ 1 con/week
System	36	12	37	$365
System open PT	104	10	89	$888
My Trades	102	20	54	$540

The above table summarizes best week, and worst week, average ticks per week and average dollars per week per contract. I find it interesting that although I underperformed the "System open PT" in terms of overall per week points, my worst week was half as bad.

1/3/2007	Direction	Type	System	Syst. Open PT	My Trades	Trade Comments
6:30	Long	Regular	15	24		I didn't trade this day
6:41	Long	BreakOut	-11	-11
6:50	Short	Regular	15	12
7:02	Long	Regular	15	23
7:39	Short	Regular	15	17
1/4/2007
6:31	Short	Regular	15	47		I didn't trade this day
6:47	Long	Regular	-18	-18
7:04	Short	BreakOut	-2	-2
7:14	Long	Regular	15	21
1/5/2007
6:42	Short	BreakOut	-15	-15		I didn't trade this day
6:53	Long	Regular	-18	-18
7:04	Long	Regular	15	-18
8:05	Short	BreakOut	15	35
		Weekly	56	97	0
1/8/2007
6:42	Long	Regular	-18	-18	15	I entered trade 1 candle late
7:04	Long	Regular	-18	-18	-15
7:13	Short	BreakOut	15	13	0	I skipped trade
7:25	Long	Regular	15	34	15
7:58	Short	Regular	-18	-18		I skipped trade
1/9/2007
6:33	Long	Regular	-7	-7	0	I skipped trade
6:37	Short	BreakOut	-17	-17	0	I skipped trade
6:40	Long	Regular	-18	-18	0	I skipped trade
6:47	Short	BreakOut	15	18	0	I skipped trade
7:06	Long	Regular	15	12	15
7:51	Short	Regular	15	31	15
1/10/2007
6:45	Long	Regular	15	23	15
7:28	Short	Regular	-18	-18	2	Exited early
7:39	Long	Regular	15	14	15
8:01	Short	Regular	15	12	0	I skipped trade
1/11/2007
6:31	Long	BreakOut	15	46	20
7:04	Short	Regular	-18	-18	-17
7:09	Long	BreakOut	15	1	15
7:23	Short	Regular	-3	-3	10	I exited trade early
1/12/2007
6:39	Short	Regular	-18	-18	0	I skipped trade
7:08	Short	Regular	15	23	15
7:59	Long	Regular	15	30	-18	This was a different trade
						and was an invalid setup
		Weekly	27	104	102
1/16/2007
6:52	Short	Regular	15	25	15
7:24	Long	Regular	-11	-11	-18	I got out early
7:42	Short	Regular	-5	-5	-1
8:03	Long	Regular	-11	-11	0	I skipped trade
1/17/2007
6:43	Long	Regular	15	-6	15
7:02	Short	Regular	15	3	15
1/18/2007
6:57	Long	Regular	-18	-18	-18
7:01	Short	Regular	15	27	15
7:21	Long	Regular	-18	-18	-18
1/19/2007
7:00	Long	Regular	15	24	15
		Weekly	12	10	20
1/22/2007
6:31	Short	BreakOut	15	21	30
7:03	Short	BreakOut	15	17	15
7:01	Long	Regular	-18	-18	0	I skipped trade
7:22	Long	Regular	-18	-18	0	I skipped trade
1/23/2007
6:48	Long	Regular	15	24	15
7:13	Short	Regular	-18	-18	-15
7:44	Long	BreakOut	15	33	0	I skipped trade
1/24/2007
6:56	Short	Regular	-5	-5	15	I entered early
1/25/2007
6:39	Short	Regular	15	18	15
7:13	Short	BreakOut	15	14	0	I skipped trade
7:33	Long	Regular	15	15	-15	I exited early
1/26/2007
6:41	Short	Regular	15	28	0	I took this trading day off
7:00	Long	Regular	-18	-18	0
7:04	Short	BreakOut	-18	-18	0
7:09	Long	Regular	15	20	0
7:59	Short	Regular	-4	-4	0
		Weekly	36	91	60
1/29/2007
6:33	Long	Regular	15	39	32
7:19	Short	Regular	-18	-18	-17
8:06	Short	Regular	-12	-12	0	I skipped trade
1/30/2007
6:38	Short	Regular	15	3	15
7:04	Long	Regular	-18	-18	0	I skipped trade
7:45	Short	Regular	-18	-18	0	I skipped trade
8:12	Long	BreakOut	6	6	0	I skipped trade
1/31/2007						I actually ended up taking
6:32	Short	BreakOut	15	16	-8	a fake BreakOut at 7:45
7:02	Long	Regular	15	45	15
7:56	Short	Regular	15	10	0	I skipped trade
		Weekly	15	53	37
		Monthly	146	355	219

Analysis:

Based on this information it looks like I am outperforming the basic "System", but I am making about 60% as much as the "System that utilizes an open profit target" (219 ticks vs. 355). Additionally, although my discretion often keeps me out of strings of losers (thus my worst week is about half as bad as the other two systems), I am not maximizing the winners I do have in many cases, and I miss out on some 2 and 3 R trades (which are very important to me psychologically). Lastly, it appears that although I did very well in week 2 by catching trending moves and avoiding counter trend moves (this was a strong trend week), I am significantly under performing the "System with an open PT" in the more choppy (but still volatile) weeks 3 and 4.

Conclusion:

Based on this analysis, I would be better served to trade my methodology utilizing the principles of the "System with an open Profit Target" unless I can positively identify that we are indeed in a trending market and that filtering out entries will have a positive effect on my trading results.

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