Signing Off but not Signing Out

With my new catering business my schedule is very busy. It's been close to three weeks (not one) since I've been able to update my blog. I am continuing to trade the system shown on these pages and in fact am already up about 6.0 points for July so far. The system has made over 70 points so far this year. I think that the results speak for themselves.

However, its come to my attention that I have time to trade or update my blog not both. Unfortunately the blog is not as profitable as the trading ;). For those who are on Kreslik.com or Phil's Currensys forum, I will still occasionally hang out - so fear not. I may pop on the blog and post time to time, however, it will not be continually. Good luck and good trading fellow traders.

Lord Tedders

Type rest of the post here

June 25 - June 29 Moving to Portland

Since I'm moving to Portland at the end of this week (and my computer is packed), I won't be trading. Hopefully I'll be back up and running next week.

Type rest of the post here

Russell 6-22-07

The Russell opened slightly off of last nights close and proceeded to meander in a tight consolidation pattern for most of the morning. This was a tough morning for momentum trading.

First trade of the morning long at 6:42 at 846.00 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning long at 6:58 at 844.30 for -1.1. Third trade of the morning short at 7:02 at 843.70 for -0.5. Fourth trade of the morning long at 7:16 at 843.50 for -1.8. Fifth trade long at 7:42 at 842.60 for -0.6.

Net on the morning: -5.1

Russell 6-21-07

The market opened slightly off of yesterday's close and continued to push in the early morning for more bearish activity. Later in the morning, the market retraced into yesterday's value area.

First trade of the morning short at 6:35 at 841.30 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning long at 6:45 at 837.7 for -1.8. Third trade of the morning long at 7:05 at 837.20 for +2.9. Fourth trade of the morning short at 7:31 at 840.20 for -1.5. Fifth trade of the morning long at 7:42 at 841.80 for -1.8.

Net on the morning: -4.0

Russell 6-20-07

The market opened slightly above yesterday's close and quickly moved off of the morning's high. Bearish activity continued through most of the morning retracing the last several days of bullish activity.

First trade of the morning short at 6:37 at 857.20 for +3.1. Second trade of the morning long at 7:10 at 854.10 for +1.5.

Net on the morning: +4.6

Russell 6-19-07

The Russell opened 2 points off yesterday's close and consolidated in a wide range this morning.

The first trade was long at 7:03 at 849.10 for -1.8. Second trade long at 7:25 at 849.80 for +1.6.

Net on the morning: -0.2

Russell 6-18-07

The market opened near Friday's close and continued to push low (into Thursday's value area) in the early half of the morning before retracing and returning to the day's open.

First trade short at 6:37 at 856.00 for +5.4. Second trade long at 7:33 at 851.7 for +2.5

Net on the morning: +7.9

Russell 6-15-07

Sorry I didn't post this Friday but I was having difficulty uploading the picture. Friday's market had strong overnight bullish activity moving the market up nearly 10 points. However, with options expiration Friday there was little follow through in either direction and the market meandered aimlessly all morning.

First trade of the morning short at 6:45 at 855.90 for -0.4. Second trade was long at 7:10 at 856.40 for -0.2. Third trade was short at 7:55 at 858.0 for -0.8.

Net for the morning: -1.4

Russell 6-14-07

The market gapped up slightly overnight and continued to push higher throughout the morning before finding a new value area in the 847.00 to 849.00 area and then retracing slightly thereafter.

First trade of the morning at 6:33 long at 842.40 for +3.3. Second trade of the morning short at 7:10 at 846.20 for -1.8. Third trade of the morning long at 7:23 at 847.40 for -0.5. Fourth trade of the morning short at 7:49 at 846.80 for +0.5.

Net on the morning: +1.5

Russell 6-13-07

The market gapped up overnight modestly and then consolidated for the early portion of the morning before resuming bullish activity.

First trade of the morning short at 6:45 at 832.5 for -0.8. Second trade of the morning short at 7:05 at 831.70 for -0.6. Third trade of the morning long at 7:22 at 832.20 for +3.0. Fourth trade of the morning short at 7:42 at 835.20 for +0.0.

Net on the morning: +1.6

Russell 6-12-07

The Russell gapped down nearly 6 points overnight indicating a large early moring bearish movement. The market then continued it's bearish tendencies most of the morning before settling into a new value area between 832.00 and 834.00.

First trade of the morning long at 6:48 at 837.7 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning was short at 6:59 at 836.00 for +4.6. Third trade of the morning long at 7:28 at 831.70 for -0.3.

Net on the morning: +2.5

Russell 6-11-07

The market sought Friday's lows this morning before turning around and moving back toward's the close.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:43 at 840.00 for +0.7. Second trade of the morning was short at 7:07 at 840.7 for +2.6. Third trade of the morning was long at 7:51 at 838.1 for +2.5.

Net on the morning: +5.8

Russell 6-8-07

The market opened up near yesterday's close and has continued to meander it's way higher throughout the morning.

First trade of the morning long at 6:35 at 833.20 for -1.8. Second trade long at 6:45 at 831.70 for +1.5. Third trade short at 7:00 at 833.00 for -1.8. Fourth trade short at 7:25 at 836.00 for -0.4. Fifth trade long at 7:42 at 836.70 for -1.0. Sixth trade short at 7:58 at 836.10 for +0.0.

Net on the morning: -3.5

Russell 6-7-07

The morning opened slightly off yesterdays close and has worked its way progressively lower all morning.

First trade of the morning is long at 6:45 at 838.3 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning is short at 7:11 at 835.00 for +4.8.

Net on the morning: +3.0

Russell 6-6-07

In classic option expiration Friday style, the Russell has a high degree of overnight activity but has been in a very tight range all morning making momentum trading quite difficult.

First trade of the morning was short at 6:31 at 833.50 for +0.8. Second trade of the morning was long at 6:41 at 842.50 for -1.8. Third trade was long at 6:57 at 842.10 for -0.9. Fourth trade was short at 7:07 at 840.50 for -0.8. Fifth trade was long at 7:18 at 841.00 for -1.5. Sixth trade was short at 7:31 at 839.7 for -1.3. Seventh trade was long at 7:42 at 840.7 for -0.6.

Net on the morning: -6.1

Russell 6-5-07

The market opened down from yesterday's close by approximately 3 points but had little directional impetus after that. The market continued to consolidate throughout the morning and showed little interest in filling the gap. With such a tight morning I wouldn't be surprised to see more directional activity this afternoon.

First trade of the morning long at 6:51 at 852.3 for -1.6. Second trade of the morning long at 7:07 at 850.1 for -1.4. Third trade short at 7:21 at 849.5 for -1.4. Fourth trade of the morning at 7:32 at 850.5 for +1.2.

Net on the morning: -3.2

Russell 6-4-07

The market opened slightly off of yesterday's close and continued to consolidate during the early morning before testing yesterday's low and then returning to the value area.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:37 at 853.00 for +0.3. Second trade short at 7:07 at 853.20 for -1.6. Third trade long at 7:12 at 854.50 for -1.2. Fourth trade short at 7:16 at 854.10 for +2.7.

Net on the morning: +0.2

Monthly Trade Analysis May-07

Well this has been one of the strongest months all year so far and the results have been quite good because of the number of big wins and relatively small losses. My net for the month was +37.1 points which is significantly more than my monthly goal of 20 points.

May 2007 Trading Summary for Russell Futures (Actual)
Date	Trade 1	Trade 2	Trade 3	Trade 4	Trade 5	Net
5/1/2007	1.7	-1.8	-0.2	0	1.2	0.9
5/2/2007	-0.9					-0.9
5/3/2007	0.8	-1.1	-1.8	1.9		-0.2
5/4/2007	-1	-0.6				-1.6
5/7/2007	0.4	0.1				0.5
5/8/2007	5	2				7
5/9/2007	3	-1.8				1.2
5/10/2007	0.2	-1.8				-1.6
5/11/2007	-1.8	-0.5	0.7	-0.5	2.7	0.6
5/14/2007	2.4	0.1				2.5
5/15/2007	5.6	1.5				7.1
5/16/2007	-0.2	-1.8	0.3			-1.7
5/17/2007	2.4	-0.5	0.4			2.3
5/18/2007	-0.7	1.5	1.7			2.5
5/21/2007	7.9					7.9
5/22/2007	0.4	0.1	-1.8	-1.2		-2.5
5/23/2007	-0.8	3.5	0.6	1		4.3
5/24/2007	4.7	6.5				11.2
5/25/2007	-1.8	-1.2	-0.9	-1.8	1.2	-4.5
5/29/2007	-0.5	-0.1				-0.6
5/30/2007	-1.8	3.1	1.5			2.8
5/31/2007	0.5	-0.6				-0.1
						37.1
		Largest	Largest	Average	Average
	Win Ratio	Winner	Loser	Winner	Loser
	54%	7.9	-1.8	2.01	-1.05
	Week1	Week2	Week	Week4	Week 5
	-1.8	7.7	10.2	16.4	2.1

Russell 6-1-07

Afternoon bullishness once again continued into the early morning session pushing the market up. The rest of the morning consisted of a retracement to seek the morning's open.

First trade of the morning short at 7:13 at 856.50 for +1.3. Second trade of the morning long at 7:42 at 854.70 for -1.0.

Net on the morning: +0.3

Russell 5-31-07

The market continued yesterday afternoon's bullish activity through most of the early morning before consolidating into a new value area.

First trade of the morning short at 7:12 at 848.60 for +0.5. Second trade of the morning long at 7:42 at 848.70 for -0.6.

Net on the morning: -0.1

Russell 5-30-07

The market gapped down nearly 7 points this morning but couldn't sustain overnight action. The bulls came back and pushed to fill the sizeable gap, however, most likely this will not be filled until this afternoon.

First trade of the morning short at 6:30 a.m. at 832.30 for -1.8. Second trade long at 6:42 at 832.60 for +3.1. Third trade of the morning short at 7:21 at 836.40 for +1.5.

Net on the morning: +2.8

Russell 5-23-07

The Russell gapped up slightly and then pushed higher most of the morning before settling into a late morning consoldiation.

First trade of the morning is long at 6:31 at 841.00 for -0.8. Second trade of the morning is long at 6:42 at 842.10 for +3.5. Third trade of the morning is short at 7:15 at 846.60 for +0.6. Fourth trade of the morning is long at 7:42 at 845.7 for +1.0.

Net on the morning: +4.3

Russell 5-22-07

The market opened with little activity and continued to consolidate for most of the morning in a fairly tight 1.5 point range.

First trade is short at 6:37 at 835.8 for +0.4. Second trade is long at 6:54 at 835.5 for +0.1. Third trade is short at 7:19 at 835.5 for -1.8. Fourth trade is long at 7:31 at 837.5 for -1.2.

Net on the morning: -2.5

Russell 5-21-07

The market opened above Friday's high and continued to push higher all morning. This was a very high volume active morning with strong bullish activity.

First trade of the morning at 6:42 at 825.2 for +7.9

Net on the morning: +7.9

Russell 5-18-07

The Russell gapped up a little over 2 points this morning but failed to push higher. The market moved back down towards yesterday's close before again testing to the high of the day.

First trade of the day is long at 6:31 at 818.70 for -0.7. Second trade of the day is short at 6:42 at 818.00 for +1.5. Third trade of the morning is long at 7:03 at 816.50 for +1.7.

Net on the morning: +2.5

Russell 5-17-07

The market gapped lower and continued to head toward's yesterday's lows right from the beginning of the morning. Although a few slight pullbacks occured, the bears had control for the majority of the morning session.

First trade of the morning was short at 6:33 at 820.5 for +2.4. Second trade of the morning was long at 7:08 at 818.3 for -0.5. Third trade of the morning was short at 7:23 at 817.6 for +0.4.

Net on the morning: +2.3

Russell 5-16-07

The market opened with little enthusiasum for either direction this morning and stayed in a fairly consolidated range the entire morning.

First trade of the morning was a short at 6:45 at 817.50 for -0.2. Second trade of the morning was a long at 7:17 at 817.50 for -1.8. Third trade of the morning was a short at 7:25 at 817.30 for +0.3.

Net for the morning: -1.7

Russell 5-15-07

The Russell pushed lower to yesterday's low early this morning and then bounced back strongly around 10:00 EST driving new highs to 830.00. This was a strong market for momentum trading.

First trade of the morning was long at 7:01 at 823.00 for +5.6. Second trade of the morning was short at 7:37 at 828.50 for +1.5.

Net on the morning was +7.1

Russell 5-14-07

The Russell had no gap this morning but promptly moved up to test Friday afternoon's highs. The bears couldn't sustain the push and the market broke down to retest Friday's lows.

First trade of the morning short at 6:52 at 831.80 for +2.4. Second trade of the morning long at 7:47 at 828.6 for +0.1.

Net on the morning +2.5

Russell 5-11-07

The Russell gapped up slightly and then stayed within a consolidated range most of the morning before breaking highs of the day around 11:00 EST.

First trade of the morning short at 6:47 at 824.5 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning short at 7:02 at 825.7 for -0.5. Third trade of the morning at 7:17 at 826.4 for +0.7. Fourth trade of the morning short at 6:32 at 827.00 for -0.5. Fifth trade of the morning long at 7:47 at 827.5 for +2.7.

Net on the morning: +0.6

Russell 5-10-07

The Russell gapped down modestly overnight and continued to push lower early in the morning. Later in the morning the market attempted to fill the gap but never exceeded the open.

First trade of the morning long at 6:54 at 829.70 for +0.2. Second trade of the morning was short at 7:17 at 830.00 for -1.8.

Net for the morning: -1.6

Monthly Trade Analysis Apr-07

Well this has been an interesting month in that there were few large winning days; however, overall win ratio was high. My net for the month was +21.2 points which is actually a little more than my monthly goal of 20 points.

The following table shows my trades and analysis for the month:

April 2007 Trading Summary for Russell Futures (Actual)
Date	Trade 1	Trade 2	Trade 3	Trade 4	Net
4/2/07	2.5	-1.3			1.2
4/3/07	-1.3	1.1			-0.2
4/4/07	0				0.1
4/5/07	No Trades
4/6/07	Holiday
4/9/07	-1.1	2.0			0.9
4/10/07	-1.8				-1.8
4/11/07	No Trades
4/12/07	3.6	0.1			3.7
4/13/07	2.1	1.9			4.0
4/16/07	-0.4				-0.4
4/17/07	2.0	-0.4			1.6
4/18/07	-1.8	0.8	-1.3		-2.3
4/19/07	-1.3	-1.5	-1.8		-4.5
4/23/07	-1.8	0.1	0.4		-1.3
4/24/07	3.4				3.4
4/25/07	2.8				2.8
4/26/07	-1.8	1.2	2.5		1.9
4/27/07	0.1	3.0			3.1
4/30/07	1.1	-1.2	0.1		0.0
					21.2
		Largest	Largest	Average	Average
	Win Ratio	Winner	Loser	Winner	Loser
	58%	3.6	-1.8	1.62	-1.31

For a week by week analysis, the actual trades are as follows:

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5

1.1, 6.8, -5.6, 9.9

Russell 5-9-07

The market opened down but rallied quickly filling the overnight gap. The market moved up from there and sought out yesterday's highs.

First trade of the morning long at 6:55 at 829.7 for +3.0. Second trade of the morning was short at 7:47 at 831.7 for -1.8.

Net on the morning: +1.2

Russell 5-8-07

The market gapped down overnight roughly 4 points. The market continued to push lower through the early morning and met little resistance until later in the morning when it partially retraced to the 828.00 area.

First trade of the morning was short at 6:33 a.m. at 829.8 for +5.0 points. Second trade of the morning was long at 7:18 at 825.1 for +2.0 points.

Net on the morning: +7.0

Russell 5-7-07

The market opened up after yesterdays strong close but failed to sustain new highs. The market moved lower most of the morning from there seeking yesterday's value area and then consolidating.

First trade of the morning short at 6:45 a.m. at 837.00 for +.04. Second trade of the mornign was long at 7:20 at 836.00 for +.01.

Net for the morning: +0.5

Week of 4-30-07 to 5-04-07

I'm not going to post a trade by trade analysis of this week, but I've included pictures of trades for the system.

Although there were some strong trends this week, particularly on Wednesday, the system didn't capture much action. Thursday and Friday were quite choppy after several large moves earlier in the week.

Improving the View

Well I as promised, here are some pictures of me trading in Mexico. No problemo!



Type rest of the post here

With Avery in Mexico

In case folks are wondering why I'm not posting regularly this week, I'm in Mexico (Puerto Penasco) with Avery aka TheRumpledOne. We are loving the view every morning from the beach while he pounds at the pound and I scalp the Russell. Life couldn't be better. I'll post some pictures later this week.

Type rest of the post here

Russell 4-27-07

The market gapped lower approximately 4 points and continued to push down toward's yesterday's low early in the morning. Bulls attempted to bring price above the open for the morning but couldn't sustain any enthusiasum.

First trade of the morning long at 6:59 at 834.00 for +0.1. Second trade of the morning was short at 7:19 at 834.3 for +3.0.

Net on the morning: +3.1
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Russell 4-26-07

The market opened to further weakness this morning continuing yesterday's afternoon's bearish activity. After mid-morning the market reversed and moved up to this morning's opening price.

First trade of the morning long at 6:42 at 834.8 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning was short at 6:49 at 833.5 for +1.2. Third trade of the morning was long at 7:10 at 832.00 for +2.5.

Net for the morning: +1.9
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Russell 4-25-07

After a strong gap open this morning, the bears rushed in to fill the gap and we proceeded to seek yesterday afternoon's lows. It will be interesting to see if we repeat yesterday afternoon's bullish activities.

First and only trade of the morning short at 6:42 at 833.50 for +2.8.

Net for the morning: +2.8
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Russell 4-24-07

After a brief early morning attempt to push price above 834.00, the bears came out of the woods and brought the Russell down to yesterday's lows. When housing price data was released with record numbers, the floor dropped out of support and the Russell took a dive with the rest of the U.S. indicies.

First and only trade of the morning short at 6:37 at 831.50 for +3.4 points

Net on the morning: +3.4
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Russell 4-23-07

The Russell opened agressively lower this morning off of Friday's high, but just couldn't drive much below Friday's value area. The bulls came out and attempted to push the day above Friday but ran out of steam. After that the market settled into a very narrow range and I except well probably see some continued bullish activity this afternoon.

First trade of the morning was short at 6:32 at 831.50 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning was long at 6:42 at 833.40 for +0.1. Third trade of the morning was short at 7:01 at 833.70 for +0.4.

Net on the morning: -1.3
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Russell 4-19-07

The Russell gapped down 8 points and pushed lower several points before attempting to fill the gap. This was a pretty tight ranging morning making momentum trading very difficult.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:48 at 822.2 for -1.3. Second trade of the morning was short at 6:59 at 821.8 for -1.5. Third trade of the morning was short at 7:14 at 821.2 for -1.8.

Net for the morning: -4.5
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Russell 4-18-07

The Russell gapped down modestly this morning but bears just couldn't get the gap filled. The market ranged back and forth below the open for the first half hour and only after that attempted to push higher.

First trade of the morning was long at 6:57 at 831.2 for -1.8. Second trade of the morning was long at 7:17 at 829.8 for +0.8. Third trade of the morning was short at 7:37 at 831.2 for -1.3.

Net for the morning: -2.3
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Russell 4-17-07

Although the market opened above yesterday's close and attempted to rally immediately above yesterday's high, the bears were quick to come in and drive prices down to yesterday's low. The market rebounded from there and look to be seeking to break above the day's high later this morning and this afternoon.

First trade of the morning was a long at 7:01 at 834.50 for +2.0. Second trade of the morning was a short at 7:29 at 835.20 for -0.4.

Net for the morning: +1.6
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Russell 4-16-07

The Russell opened 5 points higher than Friday's close and showed modest bullish activity this morning for the first half-hour. The bears tried to close the gap around 7:00 but just couldn't get back to the day's open. The market continued to move up from that point on.

First trade of the morning was a short at 6:56 at 831.80 for -0.4.

Net for the morning: -0.4
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Russell 4-13-07

The Russell pushed higher this morning attempting to establish new highs from yesterday. However, after a brief rally, the market quickly reversed and sought yesterday's low before retracing. This was a textbook perfect momentum trading morning.

First trade of the morning was a short at 6:42 a.m. at 819.20 for +2.1. Second trade of the morning was a long at 7:21 at 816.80 for +1.9.

Net for the morning: +4.0
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What are the odds of becoming a Successful Trader?

Inspired by Steve Pavalina's post "What are the odds of becoming a successful black belt?", I feel compelled to shed some light on this trading myth. The myth of course is that 90% (or 85%, or 95% or whatever) of all traders washout. There are two inherent fallacies with this statistic - one is the quantitative fallacy (is there even a way to quantitatively measure this and if so has anyone actually ever conducted such a study), and two is the qualitative fallacy - do your efforts mean nothing if statistically you only have a 5% chance of success?

Remember, statistics center around averages, the solution - don't be average. "Never tell me the odds, kid."

The problem with these statistics (or any statistics for that matter) is that they look for averages. Quite frankly I see a lot of average people everyday. Most of them can barely drive, spend more than they save, believe that "American Idol" is worth watching, and eat fast food six times a week. So am I concerned about the competition - not exactly. As Steve so eloquently states in his article, the typical person is just a dabbler. They pull up some free information on the internet, think that they can trade with a $1k account, churn their account like butter while making all sorts of emotional stupid decisions and then give up in frustration. Is it any wonder that most of these people fail?

The real question that most people would like to know is what are the odds of an above average, driven, well motivated, positive thinking, well capitalized, well educated and totally driven person succeeding after spending 3-5 years of hard work, in other words a qualified trader? Unfortunately there are so many variables to the above statements that we may never have an answer. However, based on my experience observing and interacting with these types of people (and working towards being one myself) I would say the odds are quite good. Of the 10 or so people I know who meet these qualifications 80% of them are making enough money to sustain a modest lifestyle or better ($100K annually or better) from their trading income. Four of them are making at least medium 6 figure numbers and at least one of them is making 7 figures. Now of course these statistics are also fairly meaningless, but at least they seem a little more realistic. To me the odds of a qualified trader seem pretty good - basically an 80% chance of modest success, and a 40% chance of making a significant income (top 5% income earner or better).

Although some of you might draw some comfort from the above statistics, personally they are somewhat meaningless. Basically, your success or failure stands with your commitment to mastery. Or as my beginning statistics instructor said, "statistics are a lie".
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